Not falling for hype

This is a little belated but I simply had not had the time to sit down in front of the computer at home. This is something that I had written about some time back in regards to UOB offer to buy back certain structured products. At that time, I already made it clear that I see it as nothing more than a publicity stunt by UOB and that investors should just sit tight and hold on to their investment. Looks like I was right. I wondered if UOB actually redeemed the funds as they said they would or did they actually sat on it for a while and made a tidy little profit in the process?


For those interested in my previous article 

Reward for holding on

Investors in structured Prudential Yield product likely to make tidy profit
by Julie Quek 05:55 AM Jun 04, 2010

SINGAPORE - It was a structured product that was on the brink of collapse last year.

But investors who had held on to the Prudential Yield 15 and Yield 20 funds managed by Prudential Asset Management (Pams) look set to walk away with a tidy profit when the fund matures next Thursday.

In October last year, United Overseas Bank (UOB) made a buyback offer to about 4,000 customers who purchased the funds through the bank. UOB offered to redeem their units at par value or the initial price they paid for the investment, less all yearly payouts such as the interest coupon to date - or at 88 cents for Yield 15 and 82 US cents ($1.15) for Yield 20.

Other distributors of this structured product were HSBC, Maybank, Prudential Assurance Company Singapore and Hong Leong Finance.

At its lowest point, the Yield 15 and Yield 20 had dived to 37.5 cents and 39.8 US cents, respectively, at the end of March last year.

But improved credit conditions this year have caused the funds to recover and the price of each unit has rebounded to $1.074 for Yield 15 and US$1.104 for Yield 20 as of May 27.

Investors who held on to the fund for five years until maturity would also have earned 15-per-cent returns in coupon payments for the Yield 15 notes. This works out to about 3 per cent coupon interest a year. Meanwhile, holders of the Yield 20 fund would have collected 22.5 per cent over the 5-year investment period of the fund.

For investors, the potential capital gains coupled with the coupon payments mean that they would walk away from the fund in a better-off position at maturity than if they had redeemed those notes last year.

A retired investor who declined to be named told MediaCorp that she regretted her decision to accept UOB's buyback offer last year as this meant she lost out on the 15-per-cent returns from the coupon payments.

However, former NTUC Income chief executive Tan Kin Lian told MediaCorp that he advised these investors not to regret their earlier decision, because no one would have known whether these funds would do well or fail at maturity this year.

The fund was in trouble last year and early this year, when it suffered a total of 17 defaults out of its 100 reference entities in its portfolio.

Had the fund been hit by six more defaults, the funds' capital would be adversely affected.

Customers are expected to receive their maturity proceeds by end-June.

Changes to Criminal Procedure Code (CPC)

Some changes to the law about interrogation (clause 258) is making the waves online. Its kinda scary and to put it across in layman's term, basically it allows the police to use statements that they cheat or conned out of you, or statements that you made when you are drunk to convict you.

E.g. Someone who is caught drink driving is brought back to the police station. 1km away, there might have been a hit and run. Police questioned if the driver, who is his intoxicated state is understandably not in the best condition to answer but is forced relentlessly to answer all questions or sign a confession before he is allowed to rest. The police might also further assure him that it is not a confession he is signing but just a procedure that he needs to do before he is allowed to rest. Being so worn out and confused, the driver may just have answered wildly or signed any documents placed in front of them just to get some rest. However, the next morning, when he is sober, he is shocked to find out that what he had signed is actually a false confession as he did not commit the crime and tries to get it revoked. Unfortunately, he is unable to do so because of the law and ends up going to jail for a crime he did not commit. Is it fair?

You can say all kinds of bullshit about the integrity of our police force or government etc but I stand by Murphy's law that "whatever can go wrong will go wrong." Fuckups had, have and will continue to occur. No human being or system can be perfect. Can the police or govt guarantee a 100% no false conviction rate? By giving too much power to the agencies, what can the man on the street do to correct a wrong? Remember the case of Dickson Tan, who was caned more times than he was supposed to be? Or Tan Lai Kiat, who was released prematurely in 1999 but warrant of arrest issued again in 2003 because the courts realised that they make a mistake? If even the courts and prison can make a mistake when handling the CONVICTED, I can't see why we should put blind trust in police where the person might be actually innocent.

Rants

I happen to come across this article by Lucky Tan comparing the life of Singaporeans from 4 years ago till now. Interesting read here



I have only one major grouse in all honestly, which I look at it as the root of all the problems, is the fact that Singapore is getting overcrowded. With the fucking wrong kind of people. The govt have basically been doling out PRs and citizenships to many people whom, to put it kindly, are hardly people that qualify as 'talent'. Lets be honest here, by just bringing in just any tom, dick and harry with fucking third world mentality and habits, do you expect to become a first world country even if you have first class infrastructure?

Personal experience, I saw this chinese boy about maybe 5 years old peeing at the void deck of my house. I shouted at him and he still had the cheek to make monkey faces at me before running to his parents, who was sitting a stone throw away at the tables, eating sunflower seeds while spitting the shells on the floor. I was then confronted by BOTH his parents, shouting at me not to scare their kid and there is nothing wrong with the kid pissing there as it was according to them, 'not outside your house'. I was fucking pissed off and wasn't going to let this go so after getting nowhere with them, I decided to call the police. Long story short, the police arrive, did nothing much, no fines or anything issued, just a verbal warning. Now whenever I see this family again, which is pretty regularly since we live in the same block, the mother would make snide remarks against us 'stupid petty Singaporeans' while the father would just glare at me with his fucked up face. Its taking all I can to make me fucking wanna punch their faces in. These are the same people that crowd with you everyday on the train, squeezing in before other comes out, jumping queues, buying up your houses and fucking polluting the land I was born in, the land that I was sworn to protect.

Yeah, I am probably generalizing, but I really fucking hate these people. I can't stand their attitudes, their cultures, their mentality. Fuck the govt about being tolerant and accepting them bullshit. If I am a visitor, I would take care to gravitate myself in accordance to the host's habits and behaviors etc. In no circumstances would I expect them to change themselves to accommodate me.

Yet I don't really blame them, its not exactly their fault that their mindset and culture is such, its normal in their own country to be such. Its very much a "me first' mentality I suppose, that is probably needed to survive in their own country, given the huge population that they have. If I were them, I would have probably done the same thing to go to another country that is willing to have me despite me having no talent and pay me a salary few times more than what I am earning here and allow me to bring my whole family along to live in their govt subsidized housing and do not have to play a part in protecting the country. They even use their people's tax money to throw parties for me, teach me a new language, and maybe even provide scholarship for my kids. Without bonds of course.

If only I can find a country that stupid that is willing to take me in on those terms. I'll pack my bags and be gone on the first plane out.

Micro Financing - workable model in singapore?

I have been following the model of micro-financing or micro-loans as it is also known, for some time now. It first came to my notice through nobel prize winning Prof. Muhammad Yunus & Grameeen Bank. Then came Kiva.org which I recently became a member and pledged to do so on a monthly basis. Then I came across another for profit peer to peer site at prosper.com which really set me thinking. Can we have a similar model in Singapore?

While here I was, committing myself to a minimum of  USD $25 monthly in helping someone I have never seen halfway across the globe, I began thinking if I should actually do more for my fellow citizens, my fellow neighbors. I currently contribute only a measly $2 per month to the Community Chest, while I used to contribute $10 or $15 monthly to NKF through their lifedrops programs, I stopped doing that since the NKF saga came to light. On and off, I make contributions whenever I see those fundraisers on the street or fundraiser shows on TV, but its nothing regular, an nothing exceeding $10 each time, after being wary after the NKF saga of how my money may actually be lining the pocket of some fat cats instead of reaching those that really need it.

I am quite captivated by Kiva's model, in the sense that it is peer to peer. Just a quick summary (please do check out the website for more details), what Kiva does is that it basically connect lenders willing to lend a min of USD $25 to poor entrepreneur borrowers to help them set up a small business in order to get out of poverty. As a lender, you browse the listing with photos and short description of the would-be borrowers and decide who you want to extend the loan to. In a way, you know that your money is going towards an individual or group of your choosing. It puts a face to your recipient and personally, it gives a warm fuzzy feeling to know that you have made a difference to that person and his family. Unlike giving to a charity, the borrowers will pay you back and upon receiving back your loan amount, you can choose to recycle the loan amount once again or donate the money to Kiva to aid their operating costs. Of course, there is always a risk of default, but personally, I am looking at this from a charity point of view, I am fully prepared not to get back my money, and if I do, I will be recycling them again to someone else in need.

The other site that I mentioned earlier, prosper.com, is similar to Kiva in a way in that it involves peer to peer lending, however, it does not limit itself to poor entrepreneurs, its really for anyone. The other difference is that the lenders gets to charge an interest compared to Kiva where the lenders does not earn any interest. Browsing through the site, most people are using it to reduce their credit card debts really, where instead of paying the bank on average 24% p.a on credit card interest rates, the borrowers get a peer to peer loan at interest rate for example 6%. The borrower saves on his interest rates, the lender earns a much much better rate than savings account interest rate.

I see this second model working here in Singapore. To be honest, I am sick and tired of seeing those personal loans and credit lines commercial that the banks are offering. In many adverts, they are encouraging people to use the loans for holidays, pay for some luxury products etc which I feel is somewhat irresponsible. Of course, a bank is still a business, and with personal loans and credit lines being big money makers for them, I can see why they are keen to expand that area of the business, but I wish they can do so in a slightly more social responsible way. Then again, they have no incentive to do so at all and its up to individual borrower to read and understand the terms and conditions.

If we can somehow implement the peer to peer lending model, we can actually help those people that get into debt unwittingly and help them out of the debt. Or to lend to people with genuine needs that couldn't qualify for a government aid. If the government can't or wouldn't help us, shouldn't we help each other?

Its an idea of course, implementation is another whole different matter.

Public transport

"Public transport fares to go down by 2.5%" screams the headline today.

Explanation of how the 2.5% decrease is derived: NIL
Comparison of current pricing vs new pricing: NIL

I re-read the article a couple of times, just trying to see if I missed out anything. My understanding of the article tells me that

• Transport costs will in future be based on distance 
• Some people may be paying less
• Some people may be paying the same
• Some people may be paying MORE

How is that a decrease??? Where the hell is the decrease?? What the hell is a "transfer penalty"??? I thought whenever you do a transfer, you get discounts/rebates??? Whats the penalty??? Have I been paying more all this time without me knowing?? (not surprised if i am)

To be very honest, I gave up trying to understand how much our public transports charge.

When I take a cab, I dunno what surcharges there is or going to be applied until I paid the final bill and asked for a receipt. The cabby could have told me I need to pay a surcharge for picking me up in front of a T-junction opposite a double white line and I would have believed him and paid for it anyway.

When I take a bus, I have no idea how much I will be paying when I alight, I simply struggle to tap my card while being shoved out by the other people, and I never double check. I understand there's a whole different pricing if I paid in cash, or if I am transferring from another bus or MRT.

The only time I can have 2 more seconds to look at my remaining EZlink card value is when I take the train. I think this is the only system I can understand with no surcharges or different pricings etc (i think?)

End of the day, no matter how much the cabs, bus and trains want to charge, how much they wanna increase the fares, there's nothing you can do about it at all. Its not like I can just walk to work? Just suck thumb and pay through nose lor.

Time to get another lot of those SMRT stocks.

Embrace migrants: MM Lee

from the straits time
-------------

Apr 18, 2010
Embrace migrants: MM Lee
MM renews call for greater integration of new, highly educated migrants in society
By Rachel Lin

Singapore must not shy away from embracing new, highly educated migrants, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said yesterday. --ST PHOTO: CHUA CHIN HON

SINGAPORE must not shy away from embracing new, highly educated migrants, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said yesterday.

Re-stating his view on the issue, he said Singapore would continue to need overseas talent to drive its economic dynamo.

Pointing to the first quarter growth of 13.1 per cent and revised government projections of 7 per cent to 9 per cent growth for the year, he said this was 'a big turnaround from our most difficult period in early 2009'.

With the outlook for the global economy now brighter, sustaining Singapore's long-term prospects meant the country needed to grow as an attractive hub for international trade, investment and talent.

'That was how we grew from a fishing village to a trading post under the British, and now a vibrant metropolis,' he said. 'We benefited from being open to immigrants from around the world, especially China, India and the region.'

He said while first-generation migrants might find it difficult to take on local habits and accents, their families would be naturalised.

Read the full story in The Sunday Times.

lyuexin@sph.com.sg
-----------------------

Rationally, I think I speak for most Singaporeans when I say that we have no problems with the 'highly educated migrants' in Singapore. If only they were all like that. The ones we are having problems with are the lower educated ones, the ones that bring with them their 3rd world mentality and dirty 3rd world habits, the ones that we have to squeeze with on fucking overcrowded public transport on a daily basis.

Don't give me the crap about them doing jobs no one wanted to do, ask ong ah heng, there are Singaporeans doing it in the first place, but were replaced as these new pets of our ruling party are cheaper, faster and better. To me, they are also dirtier, smellier and a fucking thorn in my flesh.

I wish I can replace you and your son with people that actually do some real good work in action, rather then just words. Someone like maybe gordan brown and obama. After all, they are cheaper, faster and better too.

Cars a necessity?

This is something that is really getting on my nerves.
 
The number of people that complains and complains that COE is too high and that cars are a necessity for them and there family etc etc etc. We are really a city of whiners and disillusioned people, but I think this fellow really takes the cake.

Cars a luxury? Not for us

How about a ballot to replace the bid system?

Letter from Mark Ho 05:55 AM Apr 12, 2010

ARE cars really luxury items that many of us can do without?

I would argue cars are not a "luxury" when one needs to transport young children, elderly folk and bulky goods. One is not guaranteed a seat on public transport when you most need it, and they are poor alternatives when one has to transport big, heavy items.

Besides, the time saved on transport when one owns a car helps families bond - just by virtue of allowing parents to get home faster to spend quality time with their children. Is family bonding time a luxury we should consider doing without?

If the intent of the COE system is to control the number of cars on the road, why do we need a COE bidding system, since it promotes unhealthy speculation? Just controlling the number of COEs (perhaps by ballot system) should suffice - without bringing money into the equation.

Seriously Mark?  One is of course not guaranteed a seat, did you also know that your CPF rate is not guaranteed, your job is not guaranteed, your interest rate and money with the bank is also not guaranteed? The only guaranteed thing right now in this country other than walkovers is that you have been leading a way too sheltered life! Do you know that there are entire families who are homeless and live in tents on beaches? Do you know that there are people in Singapore that can't even afford to take public transport to go for a job interview? Have you ever seen pregnant ladies on the public transport every morning? Elderies and family carrying kids, baggages and disabled people? They too used the public transport on a daily basis. What makes you and your family so fucking special? You are an elite ah?!

Having a car helping a family bond is one of the most ridiculous thing I have heard in recent times. Are you implying that roads are too congested so you end up 'bonding' more in traffic jams? Family bonding times take place at anytime, all the time. I bond with my family by making it a point to have dinner together at least once a week. I bond with my family by calling them and asking about them during my lunch hour. I bond with my family by going on trips together. I certainly do not bond with them in a car cos that would (1) be dangerous if i am not paying a 100% while on the road and (2) if i were stuck in a jam, more often than not, I will be in a irritable mood that is not really conducive for bonding.

Finally, on proposing a ballot system for COE, I would like to ask what happens if someone like you, who considers a car a necessity, does not get one? Or do you simply assume that because you are special and have 'real' needs, you will be guaranteed one?

Wake up dude and be realistic!

Disclaimer: My family own ONE car for nearly 10 years that we share, and while there are undoubtly convenience in owning a car, it still IS a luxury, not a necessity at all! Kids take the school buses, my mum would take the occasional taxi for her medical checkups, and the adults take the public transport daily for work.